Entertainment Industry Outlook 2026: PwC, BCG & Market Forecasts

By Vitrina Research Team | Published: July 2, 2026 | Updated: July 2, 2026 | 14 min read

Every year, the world’s leading strategy and market research firms publish their outlook for the entertainment and media industry. PwC, BCG, Deloitte, McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, Omdia, Ampere Analysis, KPMG, Bain, and AlixPartners each bring different data sources, analytical frameworks, and conclusions. In aggregate, they tell a story of an industry growing in total revenue — and fragmenting sharply by segment, geography, and business model.

The headline number is $4.2 trillion by 2030 (PwC). But behind that headline, pay-TV revenue is declining, media stocks fell 19-23% in early 2026 on AI disruption fears, subscription growth is decelerating, and YouTube now outspends Netflix on content by nearly 2x. The consensus outlook is optimistic. The detail is more complicated.

This guide synthesizes the major 2025-2026 entertainment industry forecasts from ten research firms into one structured reference for B2B decision-makers. Each section covers what the firm found, the key numbers, and the B2B implication. For a broader view of structural trends driving these forecasts, see our analysis of entertainment industry trends 2026.

PwC Global E&M Outlook: $4.2 Trillion by 2030

PwC’s Global Entertainment & Media Outlook is the industry’s most-cited longitudinal forecast, covering 53 countries across all major M&E segments. The 2025-2029 edition (released July 2025) projected global revenues reaching $3.5 trillion by 2029 at a 3.7% CAGR. The more recent 2026-2030 edition raises the five-year ceiling to $4.2 trillion at a 3.4% CAGR — and introduces a landmark structural shift: advertising eclipses consumer spending as the dominant M&E revenue category for the first time in 2026 (PwC Global E&M Outlook 2026-2030).

PwC’s advertising outlook is the most bullish of any segment: global advertising grows at 5.6% CAGR versus just 2% for consumer categories — growing 3x faster. Digital formats already account for 72% of ad revenues in 2024 and will reach 80% by 2029. The fastest individual sub-segments are retail media advertising (15% CAGR), social and mobile on-stream video advertising (15% CAGR), and connected TV in-stream advertising (14% CAGR).

Beyond advertising, PwC highlights live and immersive “shared reality” experiences — cinema, live music, out-of-home entertainment, and online betting — growing at a 5.2% CAGR to reach $294 billion by 2030. Online gambling is one of the outlook’s most underreported growth stories: gross regulated gambling revenue more than doubled from $37.1 billion in 2021 to $79.5 billion in 2025, tracking to $119.7 billion by 2030 at an 8.5% CAGR. Global box office recovers at 3.5% CAGR to $39.5 billion by 2030, with Asia-Pacific leading at 4.3% CAGR and North America growing modestly at 2.8% CAGR. The US streaming video market specifically grows 33% to over $112 billion by 2029 (Variety / PwC, July 2025).

BCG & Deloitte: Gaming, Microdramas & the Superfan Economy

BCG’s “Video Gaming Report 2026” (December 2025) is the firm’s most detailed M&E sector contribution this cycle. The gaming industry exits its post-pandemic correction and returns to expansion: global gaming revenues grow at 6% CAGR to reach $350 billion by 2030, up from approximately $224 billion in 2024. Mobile in-app purchases approached $130 billion in 2025 — nearly half of total industry revenue. Cloud gaming remains nascent at $1.4 billion in 2025 but is forecast to surge to $18.3 billion by 2030 as 5G infrastructure scales (BCG, Dec 2025). Approximately 50% of game studios now use AI in production workflows, with one-fifth of games released in Q3 2025 disclosing AI use in their development.

Deloitte’s TMT Predictions 2026 (November 2025) identified three underappreciated M&E growth engines. First, microdramas: short-form mobile-first narrative content formats with in-app revenue doubling from $3.8 billion in 2025 to $7.8 billion in 2026, as viewership surpasses 500 million annually. Second, podcasts and vodcasts: annual global ad revenues hit approximately $5 billion in 2026, a near-20% year-over-year increase; 60%+ of top-rated shows are now video podcasts. Third, Deloitte’s Digital Media Trends survey (n=3,575, Fall 2025) found that roughly 80% of consumers identify as fans — and fans spend $71/month on streaming, 27% more than non-fans at $56/month, with 51 additional daily minutes of entertainment consumption. For B2B players, the superfan segmentation is the most actionable finding: content targeting identifiable fan communities commands premium monetization regardless of platform.

The Ad-Supported Threshold: 68% of SVOD Subscribers

Deloitte’s most significant structural data point: 68% of SVOD subscribers now have at least one ad-supported tier — up more than 20 percentage points in a single year. Yet 73% are frustrated with continued price increases and 61% say they would cancel their favorite service over a $5 price increase. This creates a ceiling on the ad-tier revenue strategy: platforms are monetizing existing subscribers more aggressively while simultaneously approaching the limit of consumer tolerance.

Omdia & Ampere Analysis: Streaming Crosses $100B in Content Spend

Omdia’s May 2026 report represents the most current global subscription data available. Global online video subscriptions reached 2.24 billion in 2025, growing 17.6% — and 2025 marked a structural milestone: online video revenue grew 13.5% to $176 billion, crossing pay-TV revenue ($170 billion, down 4%) for the first time in history (Omdia, May 2026). Omdia forecasts 5.6% subscription growth for full-year 2026 — a meaningful deceleration from 2025’s 17.6%, signaling that core markets are approaching saturation. The long-range view remains expansive: total TV and online video revenues grow from $775 billion in 2025 to over $1 trillion by 2030, driven primarily by advertising growth ($309 billion in 2025 to $540 billion in 2030).

Ampere Analysis’s January 2026 content investment report contains two landmark findings. First, global content spend reaches $255 billion in 2026 (+2% overall), but streaming platform spend grows faster at 6% — divergence between winner and loser cohorts is accelerating. Second, streamer content spend crosses $101 billion in 2026 — the first time above $100 billion — representing 40% of total global content investment. Streaming platforms overtook commercial broadcasters for content spend contribution for the first time in 2025, and are widening the gap. Traditional broadcasters and pay-TV operators face stagnant or declining content investment budgets (Ampere Analysis, Jan 2026).

AlixPartners & KPMG: M&A Wave and the Content Spend Surprise

AlixPartners’ 2026 M&E Predictions Report (November 2025) provides the sharpest deal-economy forecasts. M&E M&A deal value is forecast to top $80 billion in 2026, driven by a higher volume of smaller, technology and AI-focused deals rather than the mega-mergers that defined 2025 ($82.7 billion Netflix-WBD, $111 billion Paramount Skydance-WBD). Lower interest rates and reduced regulatory scrutiny create the conditions. AlixPartners identifies six themes: streaming “frenemy” convergence (130+ streaming competitors forming distribution partnerships); YouTube and Netflix competitive convergence on content type; AI fragmentation of the search market (generating a $26 billion US TAM expansion by 2029); AI’s impact on gaming valuations (companies with AI integration command 2-3x valuation multiples versus peers lagging in adoption); M&A acceleration; and private capital shifting toward enabling technology infrastructure (AlixPartners, Nov 2025).

KPMG’s “Money in Motion” report (September 2025) reframes the content spend conversation with data that inverts the standard narrative. The top content spenders across M&E are: Comcast NBCUniversal at $37 billion, YouTube at $32 billion, Disney at $28 billion, Amazon at $20 billion, and Netflix at $17 billion. YouTube outspends Netflix on content by nearly 2x — a fact almost entirely absent from mainstream industry coverage, which consistently frames Netflix as the content spend leader. The collective top-12 content spenders exceeded $200 billion annually in 2024, compounding at 10% CAGR since 2020. KPMG’s strategic observation: industry leaders are shifting from volume-based to ROI-based content investment, using data analytics to “prioritize their bets, shape creative decisions, and drive better returns.”

McKinsey & Goldman Sachs: AI Scenarios and Music’s $200B Future

McKinsey’s most substantive 2025-2026 M&E contribution is its AI scenario analysis for film and TV production rather than a traditional market forecast. McKinsey modeled four scenarios — from incremental AI productivity gains through to a fundamental reset of video production economics. The headline figure: approximately $10 billion of US original content spend is addressable by AI by 2030. The redistribution scenario is more striking: $60 billion in revenues could be redistributed within five years of AI reaching mass adoption. If open video platforms (YouTube, TikTok) captured just an incremental 5% of US viewing hours, $13.2 billion in traditional TV and film distribution revenues would decline, only partially offset by a $7.5 billion increase in open-platform revenues (McKinsey TMT, 2026).

Goldman Sachs’ “Music in the Air” 2025 report contains arguably the most striking long-range forecast in this year’s M&E research cycle: global music industry revenues grow from $40.5 billion in 2024 to nearly $200 billion by 2035. The $110.8 billion midpoint by 2030 reflects a market doubling in 11 years. Paid streaming subscribers will reach 827 million in 2025, with streaming revenue growing from $39.8 billion in 2024 to $81.1 billion by 2035 — eventually representing 74% of the total music market (Goldman Sachs, 2025). The geographic story is the critical B2B signal: emerging markets contributed approximately 60% of new subscriptions in 2024 and are forecast to account for up to 75% of net additions by 2035. AI-generated music revenues are projected to grow from approximately $400 million currently to $2.1 billion by 2030 at a 30% CAGR.

Contrarian Views: What the Bullish Consensus Is Missing

The aggregate forecast from ten research firms is broadly optimistic — $4.2 trillion by 2030, streaming crossing $100 billion in content spend, live entertainment surging. But several data points cut against the headline narrative and carry equal weight for B2B decision-making.

Media Stocks Down 19-23% in Early 2026 Despite Revenue Growth

In February 2026, Netflix, Spotify, and Fox shed 19-23% of their market value in a matter of weeks on AI disruption fears — even as their reported revenues grew (CNBC, Feb 2026). Markets are pricing in revenue redistribution risk before it appears in reported numbers. The consensus forecasts assume revenue growth; equity markets are pricing in a question mark over who captures it.

OTT Subscriber Growth Decelerating to 5.6% in 2026

Omdia’s subscriber data shows global OTT growth decelerating from 17.6% (2025) to 5.6% (2026). Core markets — North America, Western Europe — are approaching saturation. Platforms are pivoting from “add subscribers” to “extract more per subscriber,” but Deloitte’s consumer survey found 73% are already frustrated with price increases and 61% would cancel for a $5 increase. The monetization ceiling has visible cracks.

AI Copyright Risk and Labor Renegotiation

SAG-AFTRA and WGA agreements run through June 2026, setting up a potential renegotiation moment on AI usage terms. Concurrent litigation — RIAA v. Suno and Udio (2024), multiple other AI music and visual art cases — could result in licensing structures that significantly raise AI production costs. Goldman Sachs revised its streaming growth forecast downward in 2025, cutting $2.5 billion from prior projections and lowering ad-supported streaming CAGR from 11.3% to 5.7%.

Geographic Outlook: The Fastest-Growing M&E Markets

The global averages obscure where the marginal growth opportunity actually sits. North America grows at 2-3% CAGR across most M&E segments — mature, near-saturated, and facing the sharpest AI disruption risk. The growth story is elsewhere.

The Middle East deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia dominates the region with a 39.22% share of Middle East M&E revenue, and the UAE registers the highest individual CAGR at 11.08% through 2031. The market’s $44.16 billion (2025) to $76.79 billion (2031) trajectory reflects Vision 2030’s explicit entertainment infrastructure investment — cinema openings, concert venue construction, and streaming platform expansion. For international production companies and distributors, this is one of the clearest market entry opportunities in the current cycle. For insights into how these international market dynamics are reshaping film distribution companies globally, see our dedicated guide.

How Vitrina Turns Market Intelligence Into Company Intelligence

Aggregate market forecasts from PwC, BCG, and Deloitte tell you the industry is growing to $4.2 trillion. They don’t tell you which of the 130 streaming platforms competing globally is commissioning in your genre, which of the 7,759 US production businesses has an active streaming relationship in the market you’re entering, or which PE-backed acquirer just moved into the content segment you operate in. Firm-level research stays at the market level. VIQI goes to the company level.

The specific value VIQI delivers in the context of the forecasts above: AlixPartners identifies India and the Middle East as the fastest-growing M&E markets — VIQI lets you map the production companies, distributors, and streaming platforms active in those markets right now. KPMG identifies YouTube as a $32 billion content spender — VIQI covers the independent studios and MCNs that have established YouTube relationships. Ampere identifies streamers crossing $100 billion in content spend — VIQI tracks which of those streamers are actively acquiring in which genres.

The forecasts in this guide are the strategic context. VIQI is the operational layer that connects those forecasts to the specific companies, decision-makers, and deal relationships that turn market growth into business outcomes. Coverage spans 400,000+ M&E companies across every segment and geography covered in the research above.

Conclusion

The 2026 entertainment industry outlook from ten major research firms points to a $4.2 trillion market by 2030, advertising eclipsing consumer spending for the first time, streaming crossing $100 billion in content investment, and emerging markets in India and the Middle East growing at double-digit CAGRs. The macro story is one of resilient expansion.

The detail story is more complex. OTT subscriber growth is decelerating. Pay-TV revenue is structurally declining. Media equities sold off sharply on AI redistribution fears. Consumer tolerance for streaming price increases is measurably limited. McKinsey models up to $60 billion in revenue redistribution within five years of AI mass adoption. Each of these signals qualifies the bullish headline number in ways that matter for B2B strategy.

For B2B professionals, the practical output from this synthesis is not a single growth rate — it’s a map of where the opportunity gradient is steepest. Advertising over consumer. Streaming over broadcast. Emerging markets over saturated Western ones. Live experiences over linear. AI-integrated gaming companies over laggards. The firms that succeed in the next five years will be the ones who used market intelligence to place their bets before the growth became obvious.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does PwC forecast for the entertainment industry through 2030?

PwC’s Global E&M Outlook 2026-2030 projects global industry revenues reaching $4.2 trillion by 2030 at a 3.4% CAGR. Advertising eclipses consumer spending for the first time in 2026 and grows to $1.4 trillion by 2030 at 5.6% CAGR — 3x faster than the consumer category. Live experiences grow at 5.2% CAGR; box office recovers to $39.5 billion by 2030; online gambling more than doubles to $119.7 billion.

What are the fastest-growing media and entertainment markets in 2026?

India (12.6% CAGR through 2033, Grand View Research), the UAE (11.08% CAGR to 2031, Mordor Intelligence), and the broader Middle East (9.66% CAGR to 2031) significantly outpace mature Western markets. Asia-Pacific’s movies and entertainment segment grows at 10.8% CAGR through 2033. North America grows at 2.8% CAGR for box office through 2030 — the slowest major region.

Who is the largest content spender in media and entertainment?

Comcast/NBCUniversal leads at $37 billion in 2024, followed by YouTube ($32B), Disney ($28B), Amazon ($20B), and Netflix ($17B) — per KPMG’s “Money in Motion” report (Sept 2025). Netflix, despite being framed as the dominant spender in most industry coverage, ranks fifth. YouTube outspends Netflix by nearly 2x.

What does McKinsey forecast for AI’s impact on entertainment?

McKinsey models approximately $10 billion of US original content spend as addressable by AI by 2030. In their redistribution scenario, $60 billion in revenues could shift within five years of AI reaching mass adoption. If open platforms (YouTube, TikTok) capture just 5% more US viewing hours, $13.2 billion in traditional distribution revenues decline, only partially offset by $7.5 billion in new open-platform revenue.

What does Goldman Sachs forecast for the global music industry?

Goldman Sachs’ “Music in the Air” 2025 projects global music revenues growing from $40.5 billion in 2024 to nearly $200 billion by 2035, reaching $110.8 billion by 2030. Paid streaming subscribers will reach 827 million in 2025. Emerging markets will account for up to 75% of net new subscriptions by 2035, and AI-generated music revenues grow from ~$400 million now to $2.1 billion by 2030.