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Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is widely regarded as one of the most successful wrestlers turned actors in history. While the debate over who is the best in this category may spark discussions among fans of other wrestlers like Dave Bautista, Johnson has become a symbol of box office success, amassing over $15 billion in global ticket sales throughout his career.

The question now is whether Johnson can leverage his reputation as a box office draw to make A24’s “The Smashing Machine” a hit. Directed by Benny Safdie of “Uncut Gems” fame, the film is projected to open domestically with earnings around $20 million when it debuts next weekend. However, some analysts at Box Office Theory are more conservative, estimating a range of $10 to $19 million.

If it reaches the higher end of projections, “The Smashing Machine” could become A24’s second-largest opening weekend, following “Civil War,” which opened at $25.5 million and went on to earn over $127.3 million globally. The film tells the story of legendary mixed martial arts and UFC fighter Mark Kerr, with Johnson portraying Kerr. Trailers suggest a remarkable transformation for the actor, and Emily Blunt, an Oscar nominee for “Oppenheimer”, also stars.

During its festival run, the film has generated significant Oscar buzz for Johnson, which, combined with his ability to attract audiences, could help it achieve the higher end of current projections. Competition at the box office will be minimal, as IFC is releasing a dog-themed horror film, “Good Boy,” expected to earn between $3 and $6 million on the same weekend. The most notable competition will come from Taylor Swift, who is releasing “The Official Release Party of a Showgirl” that weekend.

For context, Swift’s “The Eras Tour” film grossed an impressive $249.5 million worldwide in 2023. When A24 selected this release date, they were unaware of Swift’s theatrical plans. Fortunately, the two films are likely targeting different audiences, and Swift’s event is a one-weekend affair. A24 aims for a long-term run, hoping for a film that can sustain interest through the end of the year as awards season approaches.

Even at the lower end of projections, there is optimism. A24’s “Materialists” opened to just $11.3 million over the summer but has since grossed over $103 million worldwide. The budget for Safdie’s film is reportedly around $40 million. If it can surpass $100 million globally and receive some Oscar recognition, it would be a worthwhile investment for the studio.

While attracting audiences to theaters for non-franchise films has become increasingly challenging, the combination of an engaging story, a major star in an unexpected role, and positive buzz could lead to a breakout success for “The Smashing Machine.” The film has received generally favorable reviews, with particular praise for Johnson’s performance. With the popularity of the UFC and Johnson himself, along with A24’s dedicated audience, the film has a real chance to succeed, especially if it can maintain momentum beyond its opening weekend, assuming positive word-of-mouth from viewers.

“The Smashing Machine” is set to hit theaters on October 3, 2025.

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