FRIDAY MIDDAY: The success of the Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans Christmas action film, Red One, from Amazon MGM Studios, hinges on its performance this Saturday, with projections suggesting it could exceed $30M. Current estimates indicate the family film will earn about $12M today, and between $30M and $33M over the three-day weekend.

This three-day total would surpass other Christmas films like 2004’s The Polar Express ($23.3M opening, $170M production cost, final domestic $189.5M), and be on par with Will Ferrell’s Elf ($32.1M opening, $33M production cost, $178M domestic box office). It would also significantly outperform 2007’s Fred Claus ($18.5M opening, $100M production cost, $72M domestic) and the 1996 Arnold Schwarzenegger film Jingle All the Way ($12.1M opening, $75M production cost, $60.5M domestic), which was seen as a major flop at the time. All figures are unadjusted for inflation.

According to social media analytics firm RelishMix, the online marketing for Red One is driven by Johnson’s Instagram videos, which have garnered 227.7M views from his 557.7M followers. Other notable social media influencers include Chris Evans with 17.9M followers, Kiernan Shipka at 7.1M, Lucy Liu with 6.3M, and Kristopher Hivju at 3.2M.

Watch on Deadline

However, the total social media reach without the cast stands at 258.2M, which surpasses Paramount’s If (193.9M followers) but is similar to Fall Guy, which opened with $10.4M on its first day and $27.7M over three days.

Positive feedback includes comments from advance screening attendees expressing excitement about the movie’s holiday mythology and creatures. Viewers have noted, “I’m happy for a Christmas movie that builds on mythology!” and “This looks quite fun to watch. The giant snowman fights are what drew me in.” Comments about the film’s lighthearted tone include, “This is a fun watch for the holidays! Something to laugh at and relax with,” and, “I loved it from start to finish. It was just all kinds of fun.”

On the downside, some criticism has been directed at the visual effects, with remarks like, “This movie makes no sense… so many fake CGI effects,” and “A CGI mess with no heart or magic.”

FRIDAY AM: The costly production Red One, starring Dwayne Johnson, began its box office run last night with previews totaling $3.7 million, which includes revenue from a special Sunday screening. The movie has been stable on tracking with an anticipated opening of $30M-$35M.

If it meets projections, this would mark the highest opening for a feature from a streaming service, surpassing Apple Original Films’ Killers of the Flower Moon ($23.2M), while excluding Amazon’s recent release of MGM’s Creed III ($58.3M). Red One was initially intended for a direct-to-service Prime Video release before Amazon MGM opted for a theatrical launch following positive test screenings.

Related Stories

‘Red One’ Review: Dwayne Johnson & Chris Evans’ Slightly Absurd Christmas Action Comedy Commits To The Bit

‘Gladiator II’ Set To Rule International Box Office With $80M-$90M+ Early Overseas Bow – Preview

In terms of preview comparisons, Red One outperformed other films like Elemental ($2.4M previews, $29.6M opening), If ($1.75M previews, $33.7M 3-day), and The Wild Robot ($1.95M, $35.7M 3-day). Notably, only four non-IP films have opened between $30M-$40M post-Covid: Bullet Train ($30M), M3GAN ($30.4M), The Lost City ($30.4M), and If ($33.7M). The only non-IP film to debut between $40M-$50M post-Covid is Jordan Peele’s Nope ($44.3M).

There’s much to consider this weekend as Red One, which was greenlit by Amazon MGM head Jennifer Salke and produced by Film Production and Development head Julie Rapaport, is projected to earn around $35M in its domestic opening. With no major releases since October 25, when Venom: The Last Dance debuted at $51M, there is hope for overperformance.

For a traditional studio, the expected domestic opening for Red One would be disappointing; look at the struggles of Warner Bros Discovery (market cap: $22.8 billion) with the $100M loss on Joker: Folie a Deux, which grossed only $206.3M worldwide. However, for Amazon (market cap: $2.1 trillion), the budget for Red One is insignificant. Amazon MGM asserts that long-term monetization from Red One will benefit other business areas and the Prime service. This perspective is challenging for traditional studios, even those with streaming platforms. Meanwhile, Apple is reevaluating its film strategy after facing setbacks with its $200M productions. Amazon hopes this Christmas movie will endure in its library, akin to Netflix’s Christmas Chronicles, which reappears in menus each holiday season.

Reviews for Red One are poor, sitting at 34% on Rotten Tomatoes. The film revolves around the kidnapping of Santa Claus (JK Simmons) and the ensuing rescue led by his head of security (Johnson), who receives assistance from an underground hacker (Evans). Co-starring Kiernan Shipka and Lucy Liu, the film reunites Johnson with Jumanji director Jake Kasdan. Negative reviews are common for Johnson films, which often prioritize mass appeal over critical acclaim, as seen in recent Rotten Tomatoes scores for his films like Rampage (51%), San Andreas (48%), and Black Adam (39%). However, Johnson tends to perform well with CinemaScores, with San Andreas and Rampage both receiving an A-, and Black Adam a B+.

Red One has access to all IMAX and PLF screens.

Currently, Red One has earned $36M internationally across 75 territories, which is underwhelming, especially considering that Christmas is not celebrated universally.

The rest of the week:

• • Venom: Last Dance (Sony) – 3,905 theaters, Thu $788K (-15% from Wed), Wk $21.6M, Total $120.2M/Wk 3

 

• • Heretic (A24) – 3,221 theaters, Thu $773K (-10%), Wk $15M/Wk 1

 

• • Best Christmas Pageant Ever (LG) – 3,020 theaters, Thu $600K (-2%), Wk $14.5M/Wk 1

 

• • Wild Robot (Uni) – 3,051 theaters, Thu $327K (-4%), Wk $9.2M/Total $133.4M/Wk 7

 

• • Smile 2 (Par) – 2,822 theaters, Thu $384K (-4%), Wk $7.1M, Total $62.9M/Wk 4

 

 

Person

Dwayne Johnson, Chris Evans, Will Ferrell, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Kiernan Shipka, Lucy Liu, Kristopher Hivju, Jennifer Salke, Julie Rapaport, JK Simmons, Jake Kasdan, Ryan Gosling, Emily Blunt

Company Names

Amazon MGM Studios, Paramount, Apple Original Films, Warner Bros Discovery, Sony, A24, LG, Universal

Titles

Red One, The Polar Express, Elf, Fred Clause, Jingle All the Way, Killers of the Flower Moon, Venom: The Last Dance, Heretic, Best Christmas Pageant Ever, Wild Robot, Smile 2, Christmas Chronicles, Candy Cane Lane

Disclaimer: This article has been auto-generated from a syndicated RSS feed and has not been edited by Vitrina staff. It is provided solely for informational purposes on a non-commercial basis.